Money This chart suggests Australian unemployment may get worse before it gets better

03:10  14 june  2018
03:10  14 june  2018 Source:   businessinsider.com.au

Your 10-second guide to today's RBA interest rate decision

  Your 10-second guide to today's RBA interest rate decision The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will announce its June interest rate decision later today. Having left the cash rate unchanged for nearly two years, the longest stretch of policy stability on record, few, if anyone, expects that trend will change today.

Based on the chart above from Macquarie Bank, Australian unemployment may get worse before it gets better , at least based on While the Roy Morgan series points to the risk that unemployment may lift further in the coming months, should the relationship be maintained, it also suggest

But it ’s going to get worse , before it gets better . That’s the judgement of the Office for Budget Responsibility. Their latest forecast, published by George Osborne alongside the Budget, shows that unemployment will peak at 8.7 per cent and it will not fall until quarter three 2013

a sign in front of a building© Provided by Business Insider Inc
Australian unemployment, as measured by the ABS, has risen since late last year.

It currently sits at 5.6%, reflecting the fact that the size of Australia's labour force has increased faster than employment over the past six months or so, leading to a modest increase in unemployment.

However, with economic growth picking up and lead indicators on employment remaining firm, many expect the recent trend will reverse in the months ahead.

But will it?

a close up of text on a white background© Provided by Business Insider Inc

Based on the chart above from Macquarie Bank, Australian unemployment may get worse before it gets better, at least based on Roy Morgan's separate measure on unemployment.

Maroons have come back from worse: Walters

  Maroons have come back from worse: Walters Queensland coach Kevin Walters says the Maroons have come back from a "much worse place" to lift the State of Origin shield after their 22-12 opening loss.Life after the Big Three may have started ominously for Queensland.

We have heard it before — “ It is going to get worse before it gets better .” There is a truism to the statement, but what a thought to grasp and try to work through. Yet, some feel that it may get “even worse ” before it does get better .

In today's "Single Best Chart ," Bloomberg's Tom Keene displays Brazilian GDP going back to 1996 as the nation's economy fell deeper into recession

Whatever the reason, when the latter is advanced by eight months, it has a reasonable relationship to changes in the ABS measure.

Yes, it's hardly perfect, but it's interesting nonetheless.

While the Roy Morgan series points to the risk that unemployment may lift further in the coming months, should the relationship be maintained, it also suggest unemployment may begin to fall again in the latter parts of the year.

Economists don't expect there'll be any improvement when Australia's May jobs report is released tomorrow with the median forecast looking for unemployment to remain steady at 5.6%.

Many, including the RBA, believe unemployment will need to fall to 5%, or below, before wage pressures will begin to build.

Macquarie says the RBA won't hike until 2020, and maybe not at all .
No one expects the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) to lift interest rates this year. Macquarie Bank sees the RBA holding rates steady until early 2020.And an increasing number don't think there'll be any next year either.

—   Share news in the SOC. Networks

Topical videos:

This is interesting!