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Money Australia, New Zealand dollars supported by global commodity demand

08:02  04 january  2018
08:02  04 january  2018 Source:

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Australia & new zealand . widening, our central scenarios are towards AUD/USD and NZD /USD targeting 0.81 and 0.72 respectively by end Q1-07. Amid capacity constraints, firm global demand for commodities , coupled with rise in commodity input prices, inflationary pressures have picked up.

• The analysis uses ANZIMF ( Australia - New Zealand Integrated Monetary and Fiscal model), a version of the IMF’s GIMF ( Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal Although Australia ’s net commodity exports fall, there is a rebalancing between domestic and external demand , and between China.

a close up of a sign: Illustration photo of a New Zealand Dollar note© REUTERS/Thomas White/Illustration Illustration photo of a New Zealand Dollar note The Australian and New Zealand dollars consolidated near multi-week highs on Wednesday as a spate of rousing factory surveys from around the globe seemed to bode well for the two countries' commodity exports.

The Aussie dollar (AUD=D4) was steady at $0.7826, having made a fresh three-month top at $0.7845 overnight. It faces stiff chart resistance at $0.7884 and $0.7898, twin peaks from October.

The New Zealand dollar faded a touch to $0.7090 (NZD=D4), after topping out at $0.7130 overnight.

JPMorgan's measure of global manufacturing gained another 0.6 points in December to reach 55.6, the strongest reading since February 2011.

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The Australian dollar , the Canadian dollar and the New Zealand dollar are considered NZD . New Zealand is primarily an agricultural- commodity -producing economy But still, it is highly sensitive to global performance, especially of its key trading partners, Australia , United States and Japan.

In the case of Australia and New Zealand , relative interest rates are also important because they The U.S. dollar has been pummeling other currencies, largely due to falling global commodity Commodities are not always ruled by supply and demand - their price movements can be based on

"With the forward-looking new orders increasing in similar fashion, the December survey paints a very upbeat picture for global manufacturing heading into the New Year," said JPMorgan economist David Hensley in a note.

That in turn should be positive for commodity demand, and prices. Iron ore futures, for instance, hit their highest since mid-September this week at $73.90 (TIOc1), having rebounded from a low near $58 in just a couple of months.

The Australian dollar© AAP Image/Joel Carrett The Australian dollar

Australia is the world's leading exporter of iron ore, and a major exporter of coal, gold, copper and liquefied natural gas.

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Because commodity products are transacted in highly centralized global markets, an exogenous source of terms of trade fluctuations can be identified for these major commodity exporters. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the US dollar price of their commodity exports

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New Zealand's export mix is dominated by soft commodities, including dairy and timber, and has also been doing well from increased demand out of Asia.

A global auction of dairy overnight showed the sharpest rise in prices since May, though that was mainly due to tightened supplies from New Zealand itself, and had a limited impact on the kiwi.

The Global Dairy Trade Price Index (GDT) gained 2.2 percent at the first auction of the year, after the world's biggest dairy processor, Fonterra, dropped its forecast for New Zealand milk collection for the second time in as many months.

New Zealand government bonds (0#NZTSY=) slipped in line with global debt markets, pushing yields up around 4 basis points.

Australian government bond futures were likewise lower, with the three-year bond contract (YTTc1) off 2.5 ticks at 97.800. The 10-year contract (YTCc1) eased 5 ticks to 97.2650.

Australia shares seen edging up as oil prices firm; NZ up .
Australian shares are expected to recover from two straight sessions of falls on Friday, latching on to solid leads from Wall Street inspired by higher oil prices. Wall Street surged to record highs on Thursday on the back of rising oil prices and as investors bet on a strong U.S. corporate earnings season. Oil settled at three-year highs on signs that global inventories were tightening. [.N] [O/R]The local share price index futures (YAPcm1) rose 0.3 percent or 17 points to 6,030, a 37.6-point discount to the underlying S&P/ASX 200 index (.AXJO) close. The benchmark fell 0.5 percent on Thursday.

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